Aumento del nivel del mar Caribe este en el contexto global
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15359/rca.60-1.6Palabras clave:
contexto global, elevación del nivel del mar, variabilidad interanual en el Caribe esteResumen
[Introducción]: El aumento del nivel del mar en el Caribe oriental se ha acelerado a 0.6 cm/año debido a los efectos globales de la acumulación de gases de efecto invernadero sobre la expansión térmica del agua de mar y el derretimiento de la nieve y el hielo terrestre. [Objetivo]: Este estudio cuantifica los procesos que impulsan el aumento del nivel del mar, incluyendo los cambios en el paisaje y la hidrología. Las mediciones del nivel del mar se contextualizan para facilitar orientaciones regionales. [Metodología]: La investigación utiliza técnicas avanzadas de asimilación de datos y modelado para analizar estadísticamente las tendencias en el tiempo y el espacio, tomando como referencia el nivel del mar en el Caribe oriental. [Resultados]: El análisis sugiere que para 2050 el nivel del mar estará 40 cm por encima del nivel de referencia de 1980, en concordancia con las proyecciones de modelos bajo el escenario de 8.5 W/m². La variabilidad interanual del nivel del mar y las tendencias parabólicas, impulsadas por el calentamiento del océano tropical y la reducción de la cobertura de nieve, son notorias. Un aumento en la expansión térmica y el escurrimiento superficial desde 2010 es evidente en los gráficos de profundidad-tiempo de las anomalías globales de temperatura y salinidad del mar. [Conclusiones]: Dado que es probable que ocurra erosión costera, se presentan medidas de adaptación locales que podrían aplicarse en otras regiones.
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