El uso de señales en el análisis de coyuntura
Keywords:
análisis de coyuntura, extracción de señales, tasa de crecimientoAbstract
Resumen
El análisis y seguimiento de la coyuntura económica resultan ser unas de las principales tareas de las autoridades monetarias y organismos internacionales, de tal manera que las herramientas inherentes a esta tarea deben ser utilizadas en forma apropiada y tener una correcta interpretación. Dentro de este contexto el uso de señales extraídas del comportamiento de las series económicas resulta frecuente en los diversos análisis de coyuntura realizados por los bancos centrales de Centroamérica y República Dominicana. Este documento somete a revisión las principales señales utilizadas en los informes de esos análisis, comparando las ventajas en el uso de tasas de variación mensual, interanual, acumulada, anualizada, entre otras. Todo esto en preámbulo a la recomendación sobre las señales adecuadas para el seguimiento de dos variables fundamentales en la coyuntura económica: los precios y la producción.
Palabras Claves: Análisis de coyuntura, extracción de señales, tasas de crecimiento interanual, tasa de crecimiento anualizado.
Abstract
Analysis and monitoring of any economic situation are the primary tasks of monetary authorities and international organizations and, as such, the tools inherent to this task require appropriate use and interpretation. With this context in mind, the use of extracted behavioral signs in an economic series is common in several conjunctive analyses performed by the central banks in Central America and the Dominican Republic. This document is subject to review of the main signals used in these reports comparing, for example, the advantages in using monthly, inter-annual, cumulative or annualized rates of change, among others. All this is in the preamble to the final recommendation of the appropriate signals to the monitoring of two key variables in the economic conjuncture: prices and production.
Keywords: conjuncture analysis, signal extraction, interannual growth rates, annualized growth rate.
References
Bureau of Economic Analysis. Gross domestic product: first quarter 2011 (advance estimated). EE.UU.: Deparment of Commerce. Disponible en: [http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2011/pdf/gdp1q11_adv.pdf].
Espasa, A. y Cancelo, J.R. (1993). Métodos cuantitativos para el análisis de la coyuntura económica. Madrid: Alianza Editorial
Garrido, R.; Fernández, J.; Mañas, E. y Peinado, M. (2003). Análisis del entorno económico de la empresa. Madrid: Ediciones Pirámides.
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