Forecasting changes in sea surface temperature in the Gulf of California, and theirs effects on abundance and distribution of reef species

  • Arturo Ayala-Bocos Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur Departamento de Biología Marina; Ecosistemas y Conservación: Proazul Terrestre A.C.
  • Héctor Reyes-Bonilla Universidad Autónoma de Baja California Sur Departamento de Biología Marina
  • Luis E. Calderón-Aguilera Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada Departamento de Ecología Marina
  • Ma. Dinorah Herrero-Perezrul Centro Interdisciplinario de Ciencias Marinas Instituto Politécnico Nacional
  • Pedro C. González-Espinosa Centro de Investigaciones Biológicas del Noroeste S. C. Programa de Estudios de Posgrado.
Keywords: Ecological niche, global change, population ecology, fishery diagnosis, macroecology

Abstract

The Gulf of California is important because of its high biodiversity and because it is a key area for artisanal fisheries in Mexico. There are current concerns regarding threats to the Gulf, such as global warming, that have caused major changes in marine communities. Consequently, the aim of this study was to estimate the possible impact of increasing ocean temperature on key species.  Potential effects of such increase on reef species are thus estimated in this paper. In order to prepare this estimate, sea surface temperature (SST) was obtained from the NOAA database, and a temperature change trend model was constructed. Biological data was obtained from visual censuses of six regions within the Gulf between 2005 and 2007. A stepwise linear model was used to forecast potential changes in species abundance and distribution. It is estimated that by 2050 average temperature will increase 0.63°C, causing abundance of species of economic value to significantly decrease south of 25° N.  Finally, the response of the 20 most abundant fish species in the Gulf was modeled to estimate changes at community structure level. The simulation shows an imbalance in the function and structure of assemblages. Clearly, increasing sea temperature will bring an imbalance in the composition and the ecological function of the reef systems gradually changing the relative abundances of species. Therefore, the implementation of effective monitoring programs of communities would be an essential tool to detect future effects of global warming.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Aguilar, V., Hernández, D. & Kolb, M. (2007). Análisis de vacíos y omisiones en conservación de la biodiversidad marina de México. México: CONABIO/CONANP/TNC/PRONATURA.

Albouy, C., Guilhaumon, F., Araujo, M. B., Mouillot, D. & Leprieur, F. (2012). Combining projected changes in species richness and composition reveals climate change impacts on coastal Mediterranean fish assemblages. Global Change Biol., 18, 2995-3003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02772.x

Álvarez-Borrego, S. (1983). Gulf of California. In C. B. H. Ketchum (Ed.), Estuaries and Enclosed Seas (pp. 427-449). Amsterdam, Netherlands: Elsevier.

Ayala-Bocos, A. & Reyes-Bonilla, H. (2009, Julio). Analysis of reef fish abundance in the Gulf of California, and projection of changes by global warming. Ponencia presentada para el XI Simposio Internacional de Arrecifes de Coral, Fort Lauderdale, EE. UU.

Baker, A. C., Glynn, P. W. & Riegl, B. (2008). Climate change and coral reef bleaching: An ecological assessment of long-term impacts, recovery trends and future outlook. Estuar. Coast. Shelf. Sci., 80, 435-471. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2008.09.003

Brusca, R. C., Findley, L. T., Hastings, P. A., Hendrickx, M. E.,

Torre Cosío, J. & Van der Heiden, A. M. (2005). Macrofaunal diversity in the Gulf of California. In J. L. E. Cartron, G. Ceballos & R. S. Felger (Eds.), Biodiversity, ecosystems and conservation in northern Mexico (pp. 179-202). Oxford, England: Oxford University Press.

Diario Oficial de la Federación. (2010). Secretaría de Agricultura, Ganadería, Desarrollo Rural, Pesca y Alimentación (SAGARPA). Carta Nacional Pesquera. Recuperado en julio 20, 2005, disponible en http://www.conapesca.sagarpa.gob.mx/wb/cona/actualizacion_de_la_carta_nacional_pesquera_2010

Díaz-Uribe, J. G., Elorduy-Garay, J. F. & González-Valdovinos, M. T. (2001). Age and growth of the Leopard Grouper, Mycteroperca rosacea, in the southern Gulf of California, Mexico. Pacific Sci., 55(2), 171-182. http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/psc.2001.0012

Enríquez-Andrade, R., Anaya-Reyna, G., Barrera-Guevara, J. C., Carvajal-Moreno, M. A., Martínez-Delgado, M. E., Vaca-Rodríguez, J. & Valdés-Casillas, C. (2005). An analysis of critical areas for biodiversity conservation in the Gulf of California. Oc. Coast. Manag., 48, 31-50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2004.11.002

Herrero-Perezrul, M. D., Reyes-Bonilla, H., García-Domínguez, F. & Cintra-Buenrostro, C. E. (1999). Reproduction and growth of Isostichopus fuscus (Echinodermata: Holothuroidea) in the southern Gulf of California, Mexico. Mar. Biol., 135, 521-532. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s002270050653

Hoegh-Guldberg, O. (1999). Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world´s coral reefs. Mar. Fresh. Res., 50, 839-866. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/MF99078

IPCC. (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis report. Geneva, Switzerland: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Li, A. & Reidenbach, M. A. (2014). Forecasting decadal changes in sea surface temperatures and coral bleaching within a Carribean coral reef. Coral Reefs., 33(3), 847-861. doi: 10.1007/s00338-014-1162-1. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00338-014-1162-1

Lluch-Cota, S. E., Aragón-Noriega, E. A., Arreguin-Sánchez, F., Aurioles-Gamboa, D., Bautista-Romero, J. J., Brusca, R. C., Cervantes-Duarte, R., … & Sierra-Beltran, A. P. (2007). The Gulf of California: review of ecosystem status and sustainability changes. Prog. Oceanogr., 73, 1-26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2007.01.013

Logan, C. A., Dunne, J. P., Eakin, M. & Donner, S. D. (2014). Incorporating adaptive responses into futures projections of coral bleaching. Global Change Biol., 20(1), 125-139. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12390

McKenzie, B. R., Gislason, H., Möllmann, C. & Köster, F. (2007). Impact of 21st century climate change on the Baltic Sea fish community and fisheries. Global Change Biol., 13(7), 1348-1376. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01369.x

Neter, J., Kutner, M., Nachtsheim, C. & Wassermann, W. (1997). Applied linear statistical models (4th ed). New York, EE. UU.: McGraw-Hill.

NOAA. (2013). National Weather Service. Reynolds SST Analysis. Recuperado en marzo 25, 2006, disponible en http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsst.shtml

NOAA. (2015). National Centers for Environmental Information World Ocean Atlas. Recuperado en marzo 21, 2006, disponible en www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/SELECT/woaselect/woaselect.html

Ocean Color Web. (2015). Ocean Color Feature. Recuperado en mayo 15, 2006, disponible en http://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov

Perry, A. L., Low, P. J., Ellis, J. R. & Reynolds, J. D. (2005). Climate Change and Distribution Shifts in Marine Fishes. Science, 308(5730), 1912-1915. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1111322

Pont, D., López, M., Carrel, G., Rogers, C. & Haidvogl, G. (2015). Historial change in fish species distribution: shifting reference conditions and global warming effects. Aquat Sci., 77, 441-453. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00027-014-0386-z

Reyes-Bonilla, H. (2003). Coral reefs of the Pacific coast of Mexico. In J. Cortés (Ed.), Latin American coral reefs (pp. 313-330). Amsterdam, Netherlands: Elsevier. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/b978-044451388-5/50015-1

Roberts, C. M., McClean, C. J., Veron, J. E. N., Hawkins, J. P., Allen, G. R., McAllister, D. E. & Werner, T. B. (2002). Marine biodiversity hotspots and conservation priorities for tropical reefs. Science, 295, 1280-1284. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1067728

Rodríguez-Quiroz, G., Aragón-Noriega, E. A., Valenzuela-Quiñónez, W. & Esparza-Leal, H. (2010). Artisanal fisheries in the conservation zones ot the Upper Gulf of California. Rev. Biol. Mar. Oceanogr., 45(1), 89-98. http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-19572010000100008

Rusnak, G. A., Fisher, R. L. & Shepard, F. P. (1964). Bathymetry and Faults of Gulf of California. In T. H. Van Andel & G. G. Jr. Shor. (Eds.), Marine Geology in the Gulf of California (pp. 59-75). Tulsa, EE. UU.: American Association of Petroleum Geologist.

Schwartz, M. W. (2012). Using niche models with climate projections to inform conservation management decisions. Biol. Cons., 155, 149-156. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2012.06.011

Smith, F. A., Lyons, S. K., Morgan-Ernest, S. K. & Brown, J. H. (2008). Macroecology: more than the division of food and space among species on continents. Prog. Phys. Geog., 32, 115-138. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0309133308094425

Thomson, A. D., Findley, L. T. & Kerstich, A. N. (2000). Reef fishes of the sea of Cortez. Texas, EE. UU.: The University of Texas Press.

Published
2015-12-17
How to Cite
Ayala-Bocos, A., Reyes-Bonilla, H., Calderón-Aguilera, L. E., Herrero-Perezrul, M. D., & González-Espinosa, P. C. (2015). Forecasting changes in sea surface temperature in the Gulf of California, and theirs effects on abundance and distribution of reef species. Journal of Marine and Coastal Sciences, 8(1), 29-40. https://doi.org/10.15359/revmar.8-1.2

Comentarios (ver términos de uso)